A high Population; Good or Bad?

INTRODUCTION

Population is a term referring to the total human inhabitants of a specified area, such as a city, country, or continent, at a given time. Population study as a discipline is known as demography. It is concerned with the size, composition, and distribution of populations; their patterns of change over time through births, deaths, and migration; and the determinants and consequences of such and the determinants and consequences of such changes. population dynamics, including growth rates, age structure, fertility and mortality, migration and more—influence every aspect of human, social and economic development (UNFPA)*

Throughout history social scientists have tracked the consequences of population trends and movements on societies, countries and economies. The size, structure and trend of a population are important issues which must be looked at in order to determine the likely path a society will take in terms of social, economic and political development.

The contribution of a big population to economic growth to economic and social development is an ambiguous and bivalent one with some scholars arguing that a big population is a pre-requisite for development while other scholars argue that a big population is an impediment to social and economic growth. Scholars who argue against a big population generally argue that although a big population is important for economic growth qualitative human development is almost impossible in big population societies due to the stress on the provision of important services.

Thus it has been shown that demographic trends have to be factored in all development planning. In order for development plans and blue prints to remain coherent and sensible in terms of goal achievement.  It is important to highlight the number of people, the structure of the population and the social cultural orientations of society in crafting development goals and objectives.

This essay aims at discussing the advantages and the disadvantages of a high population in social-economic and political development. Considering that the worlds total population is now estimated at 6.8 billion people then, the estimation of the worlds’ total population is in itself problematic as estimates in countries such as Nigeria and China are not to the nearest million.

Advantages of a high population.   

·        A high population has various advantages. One of the advantages of a high population in a country is natural resource utilization. A high population drives the push to extract from nature thus ensuring that value is gained In the process of extraction. Take the case of India for example a country in which one in six people reside in. extraction in the form of mining and in agriculture are possible because of the high population.   India ranks second worldwide in farm output. India is the largest producer in the world of milk, cashew nuts, coconuts, tea, ginger, turmeric and black pepper.  It also has the world's largest cattle population: 193 million it is the second largest producer of wheat, rice, sugar, cotton, silk, peanuts and inland fish. It is the third largest producer of tobacco. India is the largest fruit producer, accounting for 10% of the world fruit production. It is the leading producer of bananas, sapotas and mangoes. None of this would have been possible without the colossal size of the Indian population. Jalal (2008).

·        A high population is also important for industrialization. This is because a large population provides industry with a constant supply of cheap skilled and semi-skilled labour. This is important for industrial growth and growth of gross domestic product. Industrial growth on the other hand guarantees the growth of other related sectors like banking and insurance. This in turn ensures that people’s nominal income and income per capita improves. A large labour force is also important because it acts as bait for firms especially from the west as in need of outsourcing. This in turn increases a country’s GDP and creates employment opportunities.

A high population also guarantees that a country attracts foreign direct       investment. This is important as it provides financial resources for industrial production and further extraction of natural resources.

·        A high population is important because it provides a huge domestic market for industrial and agricultural goods. This helps ensures that industries stay afloat and that the country has favorable balance of trade since imports less and is able to export the surplus in the domestic economy. China for example is the world’s largest country in terms of population size with a population estimated at 23% of the world’s total.  The Chinese economy grew by 9.6 percent, 0.6 percentage points’ more than earlier estimates, in 2008, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Friday after discovering that the service sector had played a greater role than thought earlier. This is in contrast with a shrinking world economy and was largely due a large population that generally insulated the Chinese economy from the worlds’ economic trends. Sabin-Wilson  (2008).

·        A large population can be used for political gains especially within the world’s political super structure. Countries that have high populations have used their populations as an important and powerful tool in international negotiations. India for example was able to arm twists the International Atomic Energy Agency into being allowed to use nuclear technology for civilian energy production. China on its part used its population size as a resource to make sure that it was a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.  China also used its population to as an arguing point in order to win the bid to host the 2008 Beijing summer Olympics. Jacques Rogge International Olympic Committee president went on record saying that IOC would not deny China a chance to host the 2008 summer Olympics because “ A fifth of humanity reside within China’s boarders.”

Brazil for example is able to negotiate for better terms of trade with the United States because of its relatively high population.

Disadvantages of a high population  

Though a high population is desirable to some extent, it causes certain fundamental problems in almost all developing societies. Thus a high population in itself has been seen as both a characteristic of developing countries and a cause of under development. High populations and erratic population growth rates make it impossible to adequately provide social services to all members of the population. As a consequence countries with the highest populations register the highest rates of inequality in the world. The number of people living below absolute poverty standards (less than two US dollars a day) is also very high in high population countries. In order to examine the perils of a high population we have to look at the experiences of China and India which are the largest countries in the world and also Nigeria which is the largest country in sub-Saharan Africa.

·        High population’s accecabate the problem of inequality. India for example is the worlds’ 12^th largest economy by nominal value, and 4^th largest in terms of purchasing power. However 80% of Indians live on less than 2 US$D a day, this accounts for a huge number of the world’s poor. In India there exists a sharp social economic disparity between the rich and the poor, with the rich being able to afford lavish palaces and lifestyles while the poor lack access to basic amenities like housing. The problem of inequality in India is made worse by the caste system prevalent in the Indian society. Sankaran (1994).

·        High populations also increase environmental pollution and degradation. China and India are among the worst green house emitters in the world. This coupled with deforestation and strains natural ecological systems which are unable to cope with increasing population growth rates. Although India for example has one of largest fresh water resources in the world most of its residents are without water. This provides an optimum environment for water borne diseases because of the over pollution of the fresh water sources by industrials and human waste.

·        Environmental pollution hampers the ability of natural resources to sustain human life it also brings a myriad of other problems e.g. environmental health problems and conflicts between communities who fight for the scarce natural resources available.

·         A high population also hampers a country’s economy to be self sufficient in food production and to have food security. Although the green revolution highly increased the volume of food produced many high population countries have found themselves without the ability to feed their populations. Even though the arrival of Green Revolution brought end to famines in India, 40% of children under the age of three are underweight and a third of all men and women suffer from chronic energy deficiency. Human Development Report (2008).

·        High populations also bring societal conflicts and tend to heighten social, cultural and ethnic awareness. Nigeria for example has suffered from intermittent skirmishes between the country’s Muslim community who generally live in the north of the country and the country’s Christians who mainly live in the house. At the heart of the conflict are national power and the quest to control state resources. Resent skirmishes between Muslims and Christians in areas such as Jos and Maiduguri  have left many dead.

·        A high population also increases the probability of societal crime like prostitution, violent crime and so on. Brazil has one of the highest homicide rates in the world and the proliferation of rebel movements in large countries is also common. Nigeria plays host to rebel movements like Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta and Boko Harem a fundamentalist Muslim group that fights against western based civilization and education.

CONCLUSION

The debate as to the advantages and disadvantages of a high population is a heated one. The debate is also politicized with third world scholars arguing that the west is generally afraid of the exponential third world population growth. The west responds by funding family planning and population control initiatives in third world countries. Some widely held views by scholars have also come under criticism for example, ‘blaming environmental problems on overpopulation lets the real culprits off the hook. The richest fifth of the world's people consume 66 times more resources than the poorest fifth.’ PopDev. People go hungry because they do not have land on which to grow food or the money with which to buy it. Not because world agriculture cannot produce enough food. (2008)

Thus it is important to change conventional thinking about demographic issues and come up with pragmatic solutions which can help manage the world’s scarce resources equally, equitably and sustainably among the world’s population. Demographic planning initiatives must thus take centre stage in all endeavors that plan to initiate human development.